Erlanger, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS61 KILN 042311
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
711 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic afternoon and evening shower and storm chances will evolve
through midweek, with even lower diurnally driven coverage expected
for the end of the workweek. Near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future, with a gradual
return to more seasonably humid conditions through the upcoming
week. A more active pattern may try to become established for the
upcoming weekend through early next week with indications for above
normal temperatures and precipitation during this stretch.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
At the sfc, very dry air (PWs <75%) remains entrenched across the
region with the sfc high pressure departing to the NE. E/NE sfc flow
will continue to supply dry LL air into the area through today, even
with the approach of a meandering weak low into the region from the
TN Vly into srn IL/IN. This system will gradually drift closer to
the local area through tonight, bringing with it a narrow
corridor/axis of higher LL moisture/dewpoints, which is initially
focusing just to the W/SW of the ILN FA. This axis of better LL
moisture and slightly better forcing will yield an increase in
coverage of scattered to numerous showers/storms by late in the day
to the W/SW of the local area, with perhaps a stray SHRA possible in
N KY and SE IN where LL moisture availability will be slightly
better. But most, if not all, local spots remain dry through early
evening before the activity attempts to nudge to the NE into far SW
stretches of the local area near/past sunset. But, with the loss of
diurnally-driven instby, a decrease in coverage of SHRA/TSRA should
occur as the bulk of the clustering of convection begins to nudge
into the local area, eventually transitioning to ISO SHRA past
midnight for the remainder of the nighttime as the activity expands
to the N into the predawn hours. ISO SHRA will be possible across
the SW half of the local area near daybreak Tuesday.

There will be a bit more cloud cover into tonight, keeping overnight
temps in the mid 60s just about everywhere.

There will also be the potential for some near-surface smoke from
Canadian wildfires to drift into nrn parts of the ILN FA toward
daybreak Tuesday, leading to slight reductions in VSBY in west-
central and nrn OH. This being said, the smoke should be quickly
shunted back to the NW through the morning hours, leading to a
return to normal VSBY once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The weakening system will drift E tonight into the day Tuesday,
becoming more diffuse as it does so. Nevertheless, an expansion of
the richer LL moisture should gradually occur into srn parts of the
local area on Tuesday, allowing for a bit more in the way of
diurnally-driven instby and SHRA/TSRA development. Still yet, the
bulk of this activity should focus across srn/wrn parts of the ILN FA
through early evening as the LL dry air will be slower to erode in
central OH into south-central OH, likely keeping these areas drier
than locales around the Tri-State. Shear/steering-layer flow on
Tuesday will be incredibly weak, meaning that convection will be
pulsy and slow-moving and erratic in nature. PWs will climb to about
125% of seasonal norms in N KY and the Tri-State by Tuesday
afternoon, meaning that brief heavy rain can be expected in the
strongest/most persistent activity.

With the best PoPs on Tuesday focusing near/W of I-75 and near/S of
the OH Rvr, temps will be warmest in NE parts of the local area
where clouds and pcpn will be a bit more limited. Highs will top out
in the lower 80s in the Tri-State and mid 80s in central OH.

Into Tuesday night, there are indications for a reinforcing push of
drier air in from the E as the primary LL wave drifts back to the
SE, allowing for the LL flow to resume a more decidedly easterly
component than will be the case tonight into the day Tuesday. There
is some uncertainty in just where the dry air will settle back in,
with some N-S oriented axis of richer LL moisture likely to remain
in the local area (favored near/W of I-75) into early Wednesday.
Nevertheless, coverage of daytime convection should wane toward
sunset and beyond Tuesday, yielding a mainly dry overnight into
early Wednesday as temps dip into the lower to mid 60s from E to W,
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with the Ohio Valley remaining on the
western fringe of a surface high centered over southeast Canada and
the northeast United States this week. A gradual warming and
moistening trend continues. The highest theta e air arrives late in
the week when southerly winds develop. More of an easterly component
off the Appalachians should help to dry out the air some for the
midweek with downsloping occurring. Increasing afternoon
shower/storm chances accompany the more summerlike air by Thursday
or Friday. Forecast highs reach the upper 80s for the end of the
week along with dew points reaching back towards 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will prevail. A 6-8kft deck will remain across the region with
varying amounts of coverage, eventually becoming broken area wide.
Some lower level moisture will develop into the region which may
bring ceilings into the 4-5kft range on Tuesday with some scattered
showers. Easterly winds will remain below 10 kt.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...